Outlook for Winter 2017-2018

The outlook for December, January and February:

Temperature:

off01_temp

Precipitation:

off01_prcp

Advertisements

Harvey and Irma Are Not A Sign of Climate Change

at201711_sat Sorry climate alarmists, but you can not blame this year’s major hurricanes on climate change, global warming or whatever you want to call it.

Posting on the Watts Up With That blog.

Prior to this season, there haven’t been any major hurricane landfalls in The United States since Wilma in 2005. This season is simply an anomaly. In fact, the frequency of major hurricanes has been decreasing.

 

 

Summer of 2017: Weather Summary

IMG_0066Meteorological summer has ended. Here is a summary of the summer’s weather in Stormstown, PA.

Overall, it was a cooler than average summer, especially during August. June was about a degree Fahrenheit below normal, July was near normal, and August was 3.3 degrees F below normal. There was only one day at or above 90 deg. F (91 F on June 13).

Precipitation was below normal for the most part, even though July was an inch above normal. The maximum single day rainfall was 1.33 inches on July 14.

Highest wind speed was 40 mph on August 19.

Halfmoon Valley Rainfall

After the rainfall from yesterday and early this morning (1.10 inches), the annual precipitation is now at a surplus of 0.17 inches. Monthly precipitation has been below normal for January, February, March and April. May is not quite over, but the rainfall for the month is 1.74 inches above normal.
Outlook
The outlook for the summer months of June, July and August indicates equal chances for a near normal amount of precipitation.

NYT Says We’re Too Dumb To Understand Climate Change

By Robert Tracinski I recently wrote about the wretched reporting on the claim that 2016 was the “hottest year on record,” using as my main example a New York Times article by Justin Gillis that gave his readers none of the relevant numbers they could use to evaluate that claim. None of them. If you…

via NYT: Our Readers Are Too Dumb To Understand Global Warming Numbers – Hide Fact that Claimed ‘Hottest Year’ was within margin of error —

Yes, where are the error bars?!

First Day of Pyranometer Operation

In a previous post, I talked about installing a new pyranometer to my weather station. Below is a graph of today’s solar radiation flux in W/m^2.

solrad

The graph clearly shows when the instrument was in shade (7:30 – 9:30 AM EST). Maximum value was after noon due to the fact that the longitude is about 3 deg west of the 75th meridian and because the equation of time for today is 3 minutes. The maximum solar elevation angle was about 28 deg. The optical depth of the atmosphere is significantly higher at such a low angle than if the sun was at zenith.

Climate Talking Points

 

  1. There is no 97% consensus of scientists. In a 2013 survey of the professional members of the American Meteorological Society, only 52% believed that global warming was primarily man-made – much less dangerous. No group in the survey came anywhere close to reaching 97%.
  2. Heatwaves are not getting worse. According to the EPA, the worst heatwaves in the US (by far) occurred during the 1930’s – when the Midwest commonly saw temperatures over 110 degrees, and as high as 120 degrees.
  3. Droughts are not getting worse. According to NOAA, the US has been getting steadily wetter over the past century.
  4. Scientists say that California has had much more severe droughts in the past, lasting as long as 200 years. The past 100 years was the wettest century on record in California.
  5. Hurricanes are not getting worse. The US is experiencing a record quiet period for hurricanes.
  6. According to the Danish Meteorological Institute, the Arctic Ocean is full of thick ice. There is more ice on the Russian side than there has been in years, and a group of global warming sailors are currently blocked by impenetrable ice in the Northeast Passage.
  7. Polar Bear populations are not decreasing. In fact, there are more Polar Bears now than when Al Gore was born.
  8. Sea level has been rising for 20,000 years, since the end of the last ice age. Most of that time much faster than now. It has nothing to do with humans.
  9. According to NOAA, sea level is only rising 1.7 to 1.8 mm/year. At that rate, it will take thousands of years for Manhattan to drown.
  10. According to NOAA, sea level at Manhattan has been rising at about the same rate (2.8 mm/year) since the 1850’s. There is no indication that humans are affecting the rate of sea level rise.
  11. Glaciers have been melting for a very long time. In 1879, John Muir (founder of the Sierra Club) found that Alaska’s largest glacier had retreated 48 miles since 1794. Twenty thousand years ago, Chicago was buried under a mile of glacial ice.
  12. Forest fires are not getting worse over the long term. According to USDA, the US had five times as much burn acreage in the 1930’s as we do now.
  13. Climate models have epically failed, and greatly over-predict warming.
  14. Our most accurate systems for measuring global temperature, satellites, show that this year (2016) is no warmer than 1998.
  15. NASA shows that global surface temperatures have fallen 0.54 degrees C over the last four months. The largest drop on record in such a short time.
These points are unassailable, and backed by government data. So which political party is fear mongering?

Climate Debate Rules

Rule 1 – Do not make the thoroughly discredited claim that 97% of scientists agree that humans are warming the globe significantly.

Rule 2 – Do not employ the use of an ad hominem, dismiss an argument solely based on its source or funding, or employ any other logical fallacies.

Rule 3 – Stay on topic. No strawman arguments.

Rule 4 – Answer questions.

Rule 5 – When you are wrong, admit it and apologize.

Rule 6 – There is no Rule 6 (see Monty Python Bruces Sketch)